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Factorizable joint shift revisited
Such failure can be caused by distribution shift (also known as dataset shift) between the training and test datasets. For this reason, distribution shift and domain adaptation (a notion comprising techniques for tackling distribution shift) has been a major research topic in machine learning for some time. This paper takes the perspective of Kouw and Loog (2021) and studies the case where feature observations from the test dataset are available for analysis but observations of labels are missing. Under these circumstances, without any assumptions on the nature of the distribution shift between the training and test datasets meaningful prediction of the labels in the test dataset or of their distribution is not feasible. See Kouw and Loog (2021) for a survey of approaches to domain adaptation and their related assumptions. Arguably, covariate shift (also known as population drift) and label shift (also known as prior probability shift or target shift) are the most popular specific distribution shift assumptions, both for their intuiveness as well as their computational manageability. However, exclusive covariate and label shift assumptions have been criticised for being insufficient for common domain adaptation tasks (e.g.
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Statsformer: Validated Ensemble Learning with LLM-Derived Semantic Priors
Zhang, Erica, Sagan, Naomi, Tse, Danny, Zhang, Fangzhao, Pilanci, Mert, Blanchet, Jose
We introduce Statsformer, a principled framework for integrating large language model (LLM)-derived knowledge into supervised statistical learning. Existing approaches are limited in adaptability and scope: they either inject LLM guidance as an unvalidated heuristic, which is sensitive to LLM hallucination, or embed semantic information within a single fixed learner. Statsformer overcomes both limitations through a guardrailed ensemble architecture. We embed LLM-derived feature priors within an ensemble of linear and nonlinear learners, adaptively calibrating their influence via cross-validation. This design yields a flexible system with an oracle-style guarantee that it performs no worse than any convex combination of its in-library base learners, up to statistical error. Empirically, informative priors yield consistent performance improvements, while uninformative or misspecified LLM guidance is automatically downweighted, mitigating the impact of hallucinations across a diverse range of prediction tasks.
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A Universal Load Balancing Principle and Its Application to Large Language Model Serving
Chen, Zixi, Bu, Tianci, Song, Chendong, Lu, Xin, Ye, Yinyu, Zhou, Zijie
Load balancing-the allocation of work across parallel resources to reduce delay, energy and cost-is a pervasive challenge in science and engineering, from large-scale simulation and data processing to cloud and manufacturing operations. Motivated by the emerging bottleneck in large language model (LLM) serving, we study a particularly stringent regime of load balancing that arises in barrier-synchronized, stateful systems: work cannot be freely migrated and progress is gated by the slowest participant at each step, so heterogeneity and temporal drift in workloads create persistent stragglers and substantial idle time. LLM serving under data-parallel decoding provides a prominent modern instance: in production traces, barrier-induced idle can exceed 40% of compute time per decode step. Here we develop a universal load-balancing principle, which admits a step-wise finite-horizon integer-optimization formulation and yields worst-case guarantees: across LLM decode models and a broader class of non-decreasing workload drift processes, it reduces long-run imbalance by a factor that grows with batch size and system scale. Extensive experiments corroborate the theory, showing substantial improvements in throughput and latency together with reductions in energy consumption. These results provide a general, theoretically grounded framework for load balancing, with immediate implications for sustainable LLM serving and broad relevance to other synchronization-gated resource-allocation problems.
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A Targeted Learning Framework for Estimating Restricted Mean Survival Time Difference using Pseudo-observations
A targeted learning (TL) framework is developed to estimate the difference in the restricted mean survival time (RMST) for a clinical trial with time-to-event outcomes. The approach starts by defining the target estimand as the RMST difference between investigational and control treatments. Next, an efficient estimation method is introduced: a targeted minimum loss estimator (TMLE) utilizing pseudo-observations. Moreover, a version of the copy reference (CR) approach is developed to perform a sensitivity analysis for right-censoring. The proposed TL framework is demonstrated using a real data application.
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